According to the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, which has recorded a decline in spot rates for the third consecutive week, the main peak season for container shipping this year appears to have already ended. This could set the stage for a new surge in the fourth quarter.

Shift in Seasonal Peaks

2026 marks the third year in a row when the main seasonal peak arrived significantly earlier than usual. Before the pandemic, shipping volumes and spot rates typically began to rise in July, continued to increase through August and September, and peaked by early October, after which it became impossible to ship goods from Asia to Europe in time for the Christmas season. Over the past three years, however, the peak season has effectively concluded by the end of July.

Confirmation of the Peak’s End

This week, at least one additional transpacific sailing was canceled due to falling spot rates. On Asia–Europe routes, rates continue to decline despite limited capacity.

In 2024, the SCFI index peaked on July 5; in 2025, it reached its maximum on June 6, four weeks earlier than in 2024. In 2026, the peak occurred on July 3, just two days later than in 2024, after which the summer rate decline began.

Reasons for the Shift and the Impact of External Factors

Despite similar trends over the past three years, the reasons for the early peak have varied: in 2024, it was the Red Sea crisis; in 2025, tariffs; and in 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a significant increase in fuel surcharges, which took effect on July 1 and raised fuel costs for shippers under long-term contracts by 80%.

In each case, shippers rushed to move cargo earlier to minimize the impact of supply chain disruptions caused by rising prices and delays. This points to the lingering psychological effects of the pandemic: market participants have become accustomed to longer container delivery times, which now exceed 2023 levels by six to eight weeks.

Possibility of a Second Peak

In the past three years, early seasonal peaks have often been followed by a so-called mini-peak in the fourth quarter, between Golden Week in early October and Chinese New Year. If this trend continues, summer rate declines are expected to bottom out in September, followed by the traditional fourth-quarter increase as inventories are replenished after Golden Week and preparations begin for Lunar New Year.

Additional Risks

There remain factors that could trigger new market disruptions: the impact of El Niño on the Panama Canal’s operations and ongoing typhoons in Asia, which complicate port activities. If drought conditions return—previously halving the Panama Canal’s capacity—container ships traveling from Asia to the US East Coast may be forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, potentially causing capacity shortages on other routes as well.