Asteroid 2024 YR4 poses no threat to the Moon or satellites.
New observations from the James Webb Telescope have shown that asteroid 2024 YR4 will not collide with the Moon in 2032. The threat to the Moon and nearby satellites has been completely ruled out.
Cursus
New data obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope confirm that asteroid 2024 YR4 will not collide with the Moon in 2032. This eliminates any threat both to Earth's natural satellite and to satellites orbiting near Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA's ATLAS system. Initially, the 60-meter-wide object was considered a potential threat to Earth due to the possibility of a collision in 2032. However, after further observations, it was determined that there is no danger to our planet. As a result, experts shifted their focus to the possibility of a collision with the Moon, and earlier, the risk of such an event was estimated at 4.3%.
In February 2026, specialists conducted new observations of the asteroid using the James Webb Telescope. These measurements allowed them to refine the object's trajectory and completely rule out the possibility of it hitting the Moon. According to calculations, the asteroid will pass at a distance of about 21,243 kilometers from the lunar surface.
Thus, there is no threat to the Moon or to satellites in near-Earth orbit. If a collision had occurred, it would have caused an explosion comparable in power to a nuclear blast and created a crater about one kilometer in diameter. However, according to updated data, this scenario will not happen, and there will be no impact to observe.
