The onset of a large-scale trade conflict between the United States and Canada, along with recent negotiations between Canada, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, is leading to significant changes in the country’s cargo flow structure.

Impact of Tariffs on Trade

The introduction of 50% tariffs by the US on Canadian goods, and Canada’s reciprocal measures against American imports, have forced Canadian importers to seek alternative supply sources, primarily in Europe. Industries with low profit margins—such as manufacturing, auto parts, and consumer goods—are under the greatest pressure from the new tariffs, as increases in the 25–50% range can completely erase profits.

Adapting Supply Chains

Currently, there have been no sharp changes in the overall volume of container shipments, but companies are testing small batches of goods from the EU to assess delivery times and total costs. Switching to new suppliers requires verifying their reliability, aligning technical specifications, and adapting to longer delivery times. Replacing a two-day cross-border truck shipment with a 14–21 day sea voyage demands a complete overhaul of storage costs and warehouse capacity planning.

Border Challenges and Logistics Shifts

The introduction of new tariffs has disrupted cargo flows between the US and Canada, prompting an urgent search for alternative solutions. There has been an increase in complex cases at the border related to determining tariff-exempt goods, as well as a decline in shipments along certain routes due to companies pausing deliveries while awaiting further developments. Tit-for-tat measures have created an atmosphere of mutual grievances, and cross-border truck traffic has become highly unstable.

New Trade Opportunities

Political moves such as agreements between Canada and the EU, and the official entry of the UK into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as of September 1, are expanding opportunities to find new suppliers. These trade agreements create a favorable regulatory corridor across the Atlantic, making British and European goods financially competitive with American products, even when factoring in maritime freight costs.

Prospects for Cargo Flow Development

A decrease in cross-border truck shipments and an increase in sea deliveries to the ports of Montreal, Saint John, and Halifax are expected, along with growth in transatlantic air freight for valuable and time-sensitive cargo.

Long-Term Changes in Supply Chains

After the events of the past two years, the likelihood of a rapid restoration of previous trade relations between the US and Canada is diminishing. Importers are having to diversify their supplier portfolios to reduce risks, and the shift toward Europe is becoming not just a temporary measure, but a structural transformation of logistics chains. Supply chain managers are prioritizing stability—even if costs remain high—and are already actively implementing supplier diversification strategies.