The authorities of Kazakhstan have announced that the country's oil and condensate production in 2026 will not reach last year's record levels. The main reasons cited are drone attacks on the primary export oil pipeline and the early shutdown of production at the giant Tengiz oil field.

According to government forecasts, the average daily production of oil and condensate in 2024 is expected to decrease by nearly 4%, amounting to around 2 million barrels per day. In 2023, this figure reached 2.07 million barrels per day, marking the highest level since Kazakhstan gained independence in 1991. The growth in production was driven by investments in modernizing the infrastructure at the Tengiz field, where production capacity increased to 1 million barrels per day.

At the beginning of 2024, drone attacks on tankers transporting Kazakh oil through the export terminal near the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea led to a revision of production forecasts. This terminal, managed by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, is located at the end of a 1,500-kilometer pipeline connecting the Tengiz field with Russian territory. Up to 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, as well as some Russian oil from the Caspian Sea, pass through this route.

Ukraine has targeted Russian energy infrastructure during the ongoing conflict, but there have been no official confirmations of attacks on the Black Sea terminal. Since the establishment of communication channels between the US, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan to verify the origin of oil loaded onto tankers, there have been no new reports of attacks on vessels at the terminal.

In August, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium installed a new offshore loading buoy (SPM) near the export terminal. Typically, the terminal is equipped with three such devices to ensure operational reliability, as only two SPMs are needed for full-capacity operations. One of the buoys was taken out of service after a drone attack last year. Currently, the new SPM, built at a shipyard in Dubai, is being connected to the terminal's infrastructure. The facility is expected to be operational in September.

It is also noted that the production forecast could have been even lower if the operators of the Tengiz and Kashagan fields had not agreed to postpone scheduled maintenance to prevent shutdowns at these sites.