In 1933, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky pondered why intelligent extraterrestrial beings had not yet visited Earth. Later, in 1950, Enrico Fermi raised a similar question, which led to the formulation of the famous "Fermi Paradox." Modern astronomical research shows that there are tens of billions of planets in our galaxy alone, with hundreds of millions located in the habitable zone. This makes the Fermi Paradox even more relevant today.

Possible Explanations for the Lack of Contact

Tsiolkovsky suggested that human civilization is still at a low level of development, so more advanced extraterrestrial civilizations may not be interested in making contact with us. However, this does not rule out the possibility of accidental encounters, as has happened in Earth's history.

A researcher from the University of Manchester proposed a new explanation, recalling Carl Sagan's hypothesis. According to this idea, we are unable to detect more advanced civilizations because we use the radio frequency range, which is not effective for communication over vast distances. As technology advances, civilizations tend to use shorter radio waves, which are much harder to detect.

Other search methods, such as observing changes on planetary surfaces, also have their limitations. For example, if extraterrestrial civilizations use automated greenhouses or dispersed structures, their activities might be invisible from space.

The Observation Window of Civilizations

Sagan theorized that civilizations have a narrow "window" during which they can be detected, after which their traces become inaccessible to observation.

The author of a recent scientific paper published on the Cornell University preprint server developed a model of civilization development after the emergence of strong artificial intelligence. He noted that modern neural networks double their capabilities roughly every five years, and with the advent of powerful AI, the pace of progress should accelerate even further.

According to the researcher's calculations, the "window" for observing an extraterrestrial civilization could shrink from a thousand years to just two decades. The likelihood of this period coinciding with our own time is extremely low, and current telescopes are not capable of detecting such civilizations at great distances.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence

The researcher suggested that the rapid development of artificial intelligence could accelerate the progress of extraterrestrial civilizations so much that their "visibility window" becomes too narrow for us to detect. In theory, we could look for inevitable traces, such as scattered heat, but this is extremely challenging.

Some neuroscientists believe that neural networks do not possess true intelligence and do not expect the emergence of strong artificial intelligence in the foreseeable future. In their view, the human brain is too complex to replicate, and neural networks are merely software with limited capabilities.

If this is the case, the narrowing of the "visibility window" of extraterrestrial civilizations due to AI may not occur, and the absence of detectable traces would require other explanations.