Rising oil prices after the US license cancellation
Oil prices surged sharply after the US revoked permission for Iranian oil exports and reports emerged of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures jumped nearly 6%, surpassing $76 per barrel.
Petrus
On Tuesday, global markets saw a rise in oil prices following the United States' revocation of a permit that had allowed Iran to export oil. This development came amid reports of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Tuesday withdrew a license issued on June 21, which had granted Iran a two-month reprieve to sell oil during negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on reaching a permanent peace agreement to end the 2026 war. The latest OFAC notice provides for a 10-day transition period to complete transactions initiated after the June authorization.
On the same day, three tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, one of which was a gas carrier chartered by QatarEnergy.
Following the OFAC announcement, oil prices surged. Brent crude futures for near-term delivery jumped nearly 6%, surpassing $76 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose by 5%, reaching $72 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. Henry Hub natural gas benchmark futures remained virtually unchanged at around $3.26 per million British thermal units.
The increase in oil prices came shortly after the release of a short-term forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which stated that the average spot price for Brent crude in the third quarter would be $74 per barrel—$27 lower than the agency’s June forecast. In June, the average spot price for Brent was $85 per barrel, $22 below the May figure and $32 below April’s level.
According to the EIA forecast, oil production is expected to rise next year, which could return the market to the state of oversupply that existed before the onset of the conflict.