On Tuesday, oil prices fell on American exchanges following reports of a possible imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped below $90 per barrel, reaching just above $88—the lowest level since mid-April. During the day, prices fell by more than 5%, and trading closed about 3% lower than the previous level. Compared to last week, WTI prices declined by roughly 5%.

Brent crude futures also dropped by about 3%, settling just above $91 per barrel, which is 4.5% lower than the previous week’s level.

The price movement was linked to expectations of a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. During the day, it was reported that Iran was not responsible for the downed American military helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, and the pilots survived. Later, the US Central Command announced it had carried out “self-defense strikes” against Iran, describing them as a “proportional response.”

Earlier, traders had reacted to news about the continuation of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as well as statements about a possible agreement to end the war with Iran in the coming days. Since early April, there have been regular reports suggesting a deal with Iran was close.

The oil and gas markets have remained tense since late February, when the US and Israel struck Iranian leadership, after which Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for about 20% of global energy traffic.

Reduced oil consumption and the release of strategic crude reserves by major economies have partially curbed price growth, but global reserves have sharply decreased. Experts note that if the strait remains closed, the economic situation could worsen.

On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its short-term energy outlook. The report notes that high WTI oil prices are expected to persist for several months, as energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to fully recover until the third quarter of this year. The EIA considers it unlikely that oil and gas trade through the strait will return to normal levels before early next year, when ships are expected to start returning to Persian Gulf ports.

According to EIA estimates, restoring previous traffic will take several months and is not expected before early 2027. The forecast suggests that the war will reduce global oil demand by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, but by the end of the second quarter, average daily reserves will decrease by 6.3 million barrels, supporting high prices.

The EIA forecasts the average Brent oil price at $105 per barrel in 2026, with a gradual decline to $79 per barrel in 2027.

On Tuesday, investment bank Barclays published a similar forecast, expecting the average Brent price to be $100 per barrel in 2026 and $88 per barrel in 2027. If normalization in the strait is delayed until the end of July, Barclays projects an average Brent price of $105 per barrel in 2026 and $95 per barrel in 2027. If the timeline shifts to the end of August, the average Brent price is expected to rise to $110 per barrel in 2026 and $105 per barrel in 2027.